Pinball by the numbers

[Opto]

[Dropshot]

You should be asking Steve how your ass looks from 5 spots back compared to how Deathsave thinks it looks just under it.

[Opto]

Steve will probably some more weekly boints together and re-pass me soon. I don't have to ask Deathsave - his mom already told me he loves the view down there

[ROM]

Yup. It was good while it lasted. See you next year, Opto!

[FHF]

Good news everyone, I've devised an equation to predict your WPPR ranking based on the number of boints you have! I fit the data for the top 500 players using a two phase exponential decay model, where X= your current WPPR boints and solving for Y= your predicted world ranking.

Y=507*EXP(-0.01398*X)+1256*EXP(-0.08633*X)+14.55

or just replace X with your boints and paste it into an excel spreadsheet as =507*EXP(-0.01398*X)+1256*EXP(-0.08633*X)+14.55

It predicted me to be 146th, but I'm really 143rd. What's the point? Yeah, there really isn't one. Of course, that's what people said when Einstein published the equations for the theoretical foundations of the laser in 1917. Still waitin on that phaser.

[Opto]

So what is the length of time predicted? For instance . . is the prediction for next year . . . next month . . . 2 years etc?

[FHF]

[Dropshot]

Close, got me at 48 but actually 55. I would need 20 lbs to actually be at 48, so I added 20 to the equation and it recalculated it to 40. Which I would need an additional 20 boints. I then put in Jorian's pt total and Keith's. For both of them it gave 14. So it's close but it seems the higher the boints the more it is off. I then put in Bounceback's 34pts at 401st and it came up 393. So it is fairly accurate. Have you figured out what number of boints will actually give out a 1st place with your equation?

[FHF]

haha! Yeah, it works pretty well for most rankings, but it doesn't actually work very well when you get to the top. Actually, I think the problem was that I didn't set the constant at the end of the equation to 1!

That's why it kept putting people at 14! Here's a better one:

=425.6*EXP(-0.01122*X)+924*EXP(-0.06349*X)+1

[JDYeager]

Only 3 places off for me; put me at 340 instead of 343.

BTW, greatest.thread.ever.

[Legs]

looks like it slightly overcompensates for lower ranked players and underestimates for higher ranked. like j.d., mine overstretches my pinball prowess a tiny bit...thinks i'm 265th when i'm 271st. this is kind of cool, but aren't you supposed to be curing cancer or something, not predicting rankings that are already calculated?

[FHF]

hahaha! never underestimate the intellectually stimulating power of recreational mathematics! Alright, now for a bath. Eureka!

[ROM]

Sweet. The first one was 1.7 below, and the second was 1.4 higher - for me. I'm 95th and SLIDING.

[FHF]

updated for showdown III. Surprising how consistent the numbers have been for this! My initial impression would be that the top 10 or so conceded a good chunk of boints to the mid 20's.

[FHF]

I still like taking the top 12 for this!